Is Jimena another Octave?

Synchronicity strikes again! Honestly, I wasn't thinking of Hurricane Jimena, currently hurling itself at the Baja peninsula, when I posted a link about Arizona catching the leavings from Pacific hurricanes every few years. After reading Azlaydey's comment about the Skull Valley Store this morning, I thought about 1) how maybe it would be interesting to check out the the current situation and 2) how weird it all was when Octave's tailings landed here in back in 19aught83.

So there you have (above) the projected path of Jimena, as of 11:30 p.m. EDT Monday, courtesy of Wunderground. Pointing smack dab in our direction. However, Ken Clark, the Accuweather blogger, has this to say, what happens to Jimena past Wednesday [when it hits Baja]? The interaction between the land and cooler waters should quickly diminish the strength. But moisture will continue to spread north. What is not easily answered right now is how far north will that moisture get. Computer models are not that impressive with moisture over southeast California or Arizona on Thursday or Friday. They very well could be wrong. But one thing we have to consider is that there will still want to be a ridge in place between a storm moving through the Northwest and the remains of Jimena and that ridge may be over portions of southern California and Arizona blocking a lot of the northward advance of moisture.

There was nothing like such a protective ridge when Octave came our way. LH and I were living in Wilhoit the other side of the Prietas at the time. We slept soundly the night it arrived, unaware that there had been a major storm. Little did we realize as we drove up the winding road from Kirkland to Skull Valley the next morning that the road might not be there the next time we tried it -- or that the flash flood had undercut the railroad tracks on the other side of the big wash. Imagine our amazement when we arrived at the Skull Valley Cafe to be told that they weren't open, that there had been 14 inches of rain on the west side of Granite Mountain, and that there were a two or three of feet of mud in the Skull Valley Store , which had recently been bought by a young couple. They were wiped out, we were told.

And so we headed to Prescott, still hoping for breakfast. As we left Skull Valley and headed up into the hills, we hit a patch on the highway where it looked as though water had washed across at some point. Reality was that water, several inches deep, was still crossing the highway. Everywhere. The hillside was still draining. Once we arrived in Prescott, it was almost impossible to find an open restaurant because the gas mains had been shut for fear of a break. Also, we were told that Iron Springs Road had nearly been taken out by flooding on Willow Creek. The final blow from Octave was that a railroad bridge north of town was washed out; as a result, the Santa Fe decided it didn't have enough business to bother repairing the damage and Prescott was without rail service from that time forward. However, the track along Skull Valley Wash was quickly repaired; a good thing, too -- roads in the area were in such bad condition that the rancher at the Bar-U-Bar could only get out by hitching a ride into Skull Valley on the Santa Fe.

So we wait and see. In the meantime, we are finally getting some rain.

Veggies with attitude

It's been some weeks since my friend and I happened across a sign at Gurley and McCormick that shouted "free vegetables!" Once we made the turn onto McComick, there was the follow up, at the Catalyst Infoshop. Figures.

I would expect that at the end of August there would be a larger selection of veggies than we saw that morning. We felt just a tad put off that the sign shouted "free", but laid a guilt trip with that donation cup at the point of purchase. Figures.

End of August Links: Warren is showing some mighty pretty cactus blossoms at Touch Wind. Jim Morgan continues to post Arizona wildflower pictures with ID on Picasa. And, from the sublime to the ridiculous, Toilets of the World, in pictures -- a travelogue of sorts.

Hey -- I just found a real goodie -- a Wikipedia entry all about hurricanes whose leftover bits and pieces have dumped rain on Arizona. There's a similar list for California. Some surprises in both. Not mentioned is that Octave (1983) washed out the Kirkland-Skull Valley Road and really dumped on the west side of Granite Mountain (something like 14 inches, if I remember correctly.) It also cost Prescott the end of the Santa Fe link into town.

Hurricane aftermath

Hurricane Gustav is spiraling its way north and west across Louisiana as I write. New Orleans appears to have been spared the worst; I haven't heard from the youngsters over in Cajun country to the west to find out what damage, if any, they have suffered. Not surprising then that I was reminded of pictures taken in May of the small fishing and oil-platform servicing port of Cameron on the Gulf coast while I visited in Louisiana.

As the US Geological Service reported, the beaches of Cameron Parish, Louisiana were located just east of the point of landfall for Hurricane Rita, in the right-front quadrant where winds and surge were a maximum. Some small towns in this zone no longer have any structures remaining. The combination of low elevations and a storm surge approaching 6 m (20 ft) that swept across the coast, resulted in bare concrete slabs and less-than-vertical pilings where buildings had been located. That was in late September 2005, only three weeks after Katrina trashed New Orleans.

Nearly three years later, these are just some of the sights that I saw, primarily in Cameron, which didn't rate much mention in the press.

All those bare foundations! Very difficult to picture the destruction that they represent.

But people are adaptable...
...and continue to think of tomorrow when they might have a chance to make the needed repairs.

Although it is common for houses to be mounted on short pilings in SW Louisiana, the Sson pointed out the more recent structures atop 5 to 8 foot pilings in hopes that they will survive future storm surges from the Gulf. (We were both surprised, though, that we didn't see much in the way of cross bracing.)

In some cases, the lower level is serving in lieu of a patio or front porch!

Nothing made me more aware of how peoples' lives are uprooted by a violent storm than the basketball hoop still standing, lonely, along the highway.

More Pictures & Blog Commentary: In addition to the USGS before and after pictures linked at the beginning of this post, aerial coverage is available here; a blogger posted his own pictures, followed by comments from Cameron Parish locals.

Heard of Ileana Yet?

Both the Arizona Republic and ERAU's weather mailing list are giving Hurricane Ileana some credit for spinning in the moisture that fueled yesterday's heavy downpours here, in Flagstaff, in the Valley and probably elsewhere in the state. However, current predictions are that the rain probably won't be back until after Labor Day.

Not for the record, my neighbor reports that his gauge read 1.8" for yesterday's storm and subsequent drizzle, but that some spray from the downspot might be included in that total. Official rainfall at the airport (which is in a totally different climate zone) was under 0.5".

In case you haven't noticed, the Eastern Pacific (i.e., Mexican Coast) hurricane names are already up to "I", compared to the Atlantic's puny "E" for Ernesto.

And if you share my ideosyncratic obsession with the strange weather in the Arizona mountains, you might go back a few spaces to this page.